By Philip Carney, EdD
Envision a classroom where both the teacher and the students are frustrated. The teacher is upset because students aren’t following expectations, and the students are escalating—not out of defiance, but because the expectations are unclear and inconsistently enforced. When no one really knows what to expect, the environment feels unsettled. Students become distracted. Behaviors become disruptive. And learning quickly takes a back seat to confusion.
This situation raises an important question: If the rules only matter sometimes, do they really matter at all?
The Importance of Predictability
In education, where change and uncertainty are constants, school leaders are always searching for ways to improve student behavior, enhance teacher effectiveness, increase student performance, and foster a positive school climate. While innovative strategies and new technologies often take the spotlight, one of the most overlooked yet essential elements of a thriving school is predictability.
Predictability might seem mundane or even rigid at first glance, but it plays a crucial role in creating a structured, safe, and productive learning environment. When students and teachers know what to expect and how to respond to one another, stress decreases, engagement rises, and behavior improves.
Research consistently shows that schools with clear expectations and predictable routines experience fewer behavioral disruptions, higher student achievement, and stronger teacher-student relationships (Sprick, Garrison, and Howard, 2021). If school leaders truly want to build a strong and positive culture, predictability must be near the top of the priority list.
Predictability Creates a Safe and Productive Environment
Predictability is not just about rules; it’s about creating stability and structure. In high-stress situations, whether in a classroom or across the school campus, predictability allows students and staff to feel safe and in control.
Consider the daily act of driving a car. It’s often cited as one of the most dangerous things people do regularly. Yet, most of us get behind the wheel each day without overwhelming anxiety—because we trust that others know the rules of the road and will follow them. We expect drivers to stay in their lanes, obey traffic signals, and yield when appropriate. In short, we expect them to drive predictably.
Now, imagine that while driving, someone suddenly swerves across lanes, runs a red light, or ignores a stop sign. In that moment, your sense of security vanishes. Your focus sharpens, and you become hyper-alert to potential danger. This sudden shift occurs because the predictability you rely on has been broken—and when predictability disappears, safety feels uncertain and fragile.
The same principle applies in schools. When expectations and responses are consistent and predictable, students feel safe and know how to navigate their environment. However, in an unpredictable school setting, where rules are unclear or inconsistently enforced, students experience uncertainty, heightened anxiety, and even trauma.
The Research on Predictability in Schools
Educational research supports what effective school leaders already understand: predictability contributes to stability, increases engagement, and promotes positive behavior.
- Predictability Reduces Behavioral Issues: A study found that when teachers consistently enforced classroom expectations, student behavior improved significantly, and disciplinary referrals dropped by 41% (Emmer & Evertson, 2016).
- Predictability Lowers Stress and Enhances Learning: The Trauma and Learning Policy Initiative (TLPI) emphasizes that predictable environments are especially critical for students with trauma histories. These environments help reduce anxiety and improve focus. Schools with clear routines and structured interventions report fewer emotional outbursts and higher levels of student engagement (TLPI, 2020).
- Predictability Strengthens Student-Teacher Relationships: Research by Sprick, Garrison, and Howard (2021) shows that when students know what to expect from their teachers, they are less likely to resist authority and more receptive to feedback and redirection.
How School Leaders Can Prioritize Predictability
Predictability starts at the classroom level, but school and district leaders play a critical role in ensuring that consistency extends across the entire school.
1. Establish and Communicate Clear and Consistent Expectations
Predictability begins with establishing clear, specific expectations for both students and staff. It’s important to note that posting rules isn’t enough—students must clearly understand:
- What is expected of them in various situations.
- What responses they can anticipate from teachers and administrators if they meet—or fail to meet—those expectations.
For example, when teachers use pre-established redirection strategies, students are less likely to resist interventions. Consider a teacher who tells students:
“If you get off task, I will quietly place a blue card on your desk as a reminder to refocus.”
If this expectation is clearly communicated and consistently applied, students are less likely to react defensively when redirected. But in a classroom without predictability, where a teacher imposes an unexpected consequence, students may interpret a random re-direction as unfair, leading to defiance or disruption.
2. Align Expectations Across Classrooms and Campuses
When expectations vary from one classroom to another, students receive mixed messages. This inconsistency often leads to confusion, frustration, and a lack of trust in the school’s systems.
Imagine an elementary school where one teacher enforces a strict “no talking in the hallways” policy, while another allows casual conversation. Or consider a middle or high school where one teacher strictly enforces a no-cell-phone policy, while another teacher down the hall regularly allows students to use their phones without redirection. Students quickly learn that rules can seem subjective and situational—undermining their sense of fairness and contributing to behavioral issues.
To prevent inconsistency, leaders should ensure expectations and consequences are aligned across classrooms, grade levels, and the entire campus. While achieving full alignment among all staff members on every expectation is extremely challenging, it is essential to establish a strong baseline of consistency across various school settings. Greater predictability can be achieved by:
- Collaborating with teachers and administrators to create and define common expectations.
- Consistently enforcing rules across all settings and personnel.
- Clearly communicating with students and families so everyone understands what to expect.
3. Use Predictability to De-escalate Conflict
Unpredictability often leads to stress and emotional escalation, while clear, consistent, and predictable responses help defuse tension. This principle extends beyond schools. Consider predictability’s role in a high-stress profession like law enforcement.
When police officers, for example, give clear and specific commands, people are more likely to comply because they understand what is expected. A calm and structured interaction allows both parties to navigate the situation safely.
However, if an individual behaves unpredictably by making sudden movements or ignoring directions, the situation can escalate quickly. The officer, trained to assess potential threats, may perceive the unexpected movement as dangerous, possibly mistaking it for an attempt to reach for a weapon. In this case, a lack of predictable behavior creates unnecessary risk for both the officer and the individual.
While the stakes in schools may be lower, the same principle still applies. When students know in advance how misbehavior will be addressed, they are less likely to react emotionally or escalate aggressively.
For example, compare these two school scenarios:
- Unpredictable Response: A student blurts out in class. The teacher suddenly yells and gives an unanticipated consequence, causing defensiveness and escalation by the student.
- Predictable Response: A student blurts out. The teacher uses a pre-established intervention such as a non-verbal cue or guided questioning to redirect the off-task behavior. Because the student expects this response, the child is more likely to self-correct without resistance.
When teachers handle behavioral issues with consistent, predictable interventions, students tend to remain calmer and more cooperative. Just as structured communication helps reduce stress and risk in other high-pressure situations, predictability in the classroom can create a sense of emotional safety and prevent escalation.
Predictability as a Leadership Priority
Predictability doesn’t mean rigidity—it means creating a stable, supportive learning environment where students and staff can thrive.
- When students know what to expect, they feel more secure and confident.
- When teachers apply consistent interventions, students are more likely to trust the established systems and self-regulate.
- When administrators align expectations across classrooms, the school culture shifts toward stability, engagement, and success.
Campus educators at all levels—teachers, instructional coaches, assistant principals, and principals—can impact their school’s climate by intentionally reinforcing predictability. Even small adjustments can transform a chaotic, reactive environment into one where learning and positive relationships flourish.
District leaders play an equally important role when they treat predictability as more than just a classroom management tool. Instead, it should be seen as a strategic investment in student achievement, teacher retention, and school safety. When behavioral systems are clear, consistent, and predictable, schools experience fewer disciplinary referrals, stronger teacher-student connections, and better academic outcomes.
Dr. Philip Carney is the owner and lead consultant of Connect-Ed Solutions. He draws from over 20 years of experience as a teacher, campus principal, and district administrator to help schools implement practical, research-informed systems that support student and staff success.
References
Emmer, E. T., & Evertson, C. M. (2016). Classroom Management for Middle and High School Teachers. Pearson.
Sprick, R., Garrison, M., & Howard, L. (2021). CHAMPS: A Proactive Approach to Classroom Management. Pacific Northwest Publishing.
Trauma and Learning Policy Initiative (2020). Consistency and Predictability in Trauma-Informed Schools. TLPI.
ChatGPT (OpenAI) was used solely to enhance language clarity and readability. It was not used to generate original content, develop arguments, or conduct analysis. The author reviewed all edits and accepts full responsibility for the accuracy and integrity of this work.
TEPSA News, November/December 2025, Vol 82, No 6
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